伯南克：金融亂局若持續
聯儲局將採遏制行動
updated:2007-09-01 19:01:46 MYT
■伯南克（右）在作出信心喊話後，與布什總統經濟顧問委員會主席愛德華拉齊爾交換意見。(放大)
（華盛頓訊）美國聯儲局主席伯南克在次級房貸風暴導致市場資金明顯緊縮以來首次發言表示，聯儲局將在必要時採取行動，防止信用市場風暴打斷經濟成長腳步。
伯南克週五在聯儲局年度研討會上表示，聯儲局目前“持續密切觀察情勢發展”，並且“將在必要時採取行動”，限縮金融市場混亂對整體經濟可能造成的負面影響。
他指出，如果信用條件進一步緊縮的情況持續下去，房地產市場更加惡化的風險就會提高。
進一步調降重貼現率
伯南克也暗示，聯儲局已經準備好進一步調降重貼現率，或者使用其他方法減輕市場資金緊縮的現象。
但他也強調，聯儲局不會出手拯救那些做出錯誤決定的投資人。
他說，保護投資人與借貸方免於承擔自身金融決定的結果並非聯儲局的責任；不過他也指出，若金融市場混亂可能導致更大範圍的經濟負面影響，聯儲局將在必要時採取行動，予以限制。
伯南克並未具體說明下一步動作，不過他清楚表明聯儲局有準備，將注意全美各地即時指標與資訊，不會讓市場騷動擴大影響整體經濟。
就在伯南克談話的一個小時後，美國總統布什也宣佈連串措施，以協助次級房貸借貸人還款，但表示不會直接資助借貸人。
美經濟風險提高
聯儲局謹慎悲觀
分析師認為，伯南克週五的談話顯示，聯儲局在9月18日會議之前將評估各種可能方案，最後可能會提高他們對美國經濟成長風險的評估。
曾任聯儲會副主席、現為普林斯頓大學教授的柏林葛表示，伯南克的談話透露一點“謹慎悲觀”的語調，與先前的“謹慎樂觀”態度已有明顯不同。
他預期聯儲局將會降息，但降息幅度不會超過0.5%點。
拯救房市政策
成效待評估
Oaktree資產管理公司表示，雖然美國總統布什推出幫助次級貸款者計劃，但是並沒有真正回應次級貸款問題，許多無力負擔的人買下房屋，很難長久地保護這類的人民，市場對幫助計劃有大反應，但不表示問題解決。
RBS Greenwich Capital懷疑，聯儲局對1.8%的核心通脹率滿意，但亦可能有足夠空間讓聯儲局作出調整來穩定金融市場。不過，美國第3季消費成長超過2%，短期經濟出現衰退可能性不高。 （星洲日報/財經•2007.09.01）
Saturday, September 1, 2007
銀公: 美息加減處兩難局面 (Interest Hike or interest cut?)
美國聯儲局將於9月18日舉行議息會議，銀行公會署理主席洪丕正昨日認為，在息口決策上聯儲局面臨兩難局面。當地通脹有上升壓力，聯儲局在上次的會後聲明，已反映當局持續關注通脹問題，令市場關注當局今年內會否為降通脹而加息。然而，次按風潮拖累環球及美國市況波動，透過減息，將有利市場重拾投資及消費信心。
洪丕正認為，距離下次議息會議尚餘約兩周，相信當局將審慎留意市場變化及資金流向，一旦發現次按問題持續惡化，觸發市場資金抽緊及股市波動，聯儲局減息的機會便相對增加。
恒生銀行副董事長兼行政總裁柯清輝，昨日出席「恒生銀行獎學金」活動後說，預期聯儲局年底前減息兩次，若次按問題未受控，估計明年初再減息一次。雖然市場估計9月減息幅度將會增至50至75點子，但他相信當局普遍傾向循序漸進減息，每次維持25點子的步伐。
他解釋，倘若大幅減息，當地市場未必承受得了，或對經濟構成負面影響，而且通脹的升溫仍是一個考慮因素，相反若維持25點子的幅度，當局可了解減息對市場帶來的影響及變化。本港息口方面，柯清輝認為，倘若美息下調，相信本港銀行亦跟隨。
港元同業拆息（HIBOR）近期持續向上，隔夜及一周拆息分別為4.16%及4.84%，而一個月拆息由上周五的4.65%，上升至4.897%水平，3個月拆息更升至4.878%水平，創01年4月以來新高。洪丕正認為，拆息持續向上，一方面反映美國次按帶來的不明朗因素，亦顯示未來4至6個月本港的首次招股活動（IPO），故拆息於現水平仍然穩定，整體而言拆息仍然屬於合理。
洪丕正強調，本港資金仍然非常充裕，整體基調持續向好，出口、消費及就業市場理想。同時，外管局放寬內地居民直接投資港股，肯定對本港市場投資氣氛帶來正面的刺激。他補充說，資金自由行將引導內地資金有秩序流入本港，有助紓緩內地股市熾熱的現況，亦為內地開放金融市場踏出重要的一步，長遠有助拉近A股與H股之間的差價。
Source = http://www.takungpao.com/news/07/09/01/JJ-789000.htm
洪丕正認為，距離下次議息會議尚餘約兩周，相信當局將審慎留意市場變化及資金流向，一旦發現次按問題持續惡化，觸發市場資金抽緊及股市波動，聯儲局減息的機會便相對增加。
恒生銀行副董事長兼行政總裁柯清輝，昨日出席「恒生銀行獎學金」活動後說，預期聯儲局年底前減息兩次，若次按問題未受控，估計明年初再減息一次。雖然市場估計9月減息幅度將會增至50至75點子，但他相信當局普遍傾向循序漸進減息，每次維持25點子的步伐。
他解釋，倘若大幅減息，當地市場未必承受得了，或對經濟構成負面影響，而且通脹的升溫仍是一個考慮因素，相反若維持25點子的幅度，當局可了解減息對市場帶來的影響及變化。本港息口方面，柯清輝認為，倘若美息下調，相信本港銀行亦跟隨。
港元同業拆息（HIBOR）近期持續向上，隔夜及一周拆息分別為4.16%及4.84%，而一個月拆息由上周五的4.65%，上升至4.897%水平，3個月拆息更升至4.878%水平，創01年4月以來新高。洪丕正認為，拆息持續向上，一方面反映美國次按帶來的不明朗因素，亦顯示未來4至6個月本港的首次招股活動（IPO），故拆息於現水平仍然穩定，整體而言拆息仍然屬於合理。
洪丕正強調，本港資金仍然非常充裕，整體基調持續向好，出口、消費及就業市場理想。同時，外管局放寬內地居民直接投資港股，肯定對本港市場投資氣氛帶來正面的刺激。他補充說，資金自由行將引導內地資金有秩序流入本港，有助紓緩內地股市熾熱的現況，亦為內地開放金融市場踏出重要的一步，長遠有助拉近A股與H股之間的差價。
Source = http://www.takungpao.com/news/07/09/01/JJ-789000.htm
布什出招紓緩次級按揭危機
美國總統布什星期五宣布一系列措施，紓緩以欠債增加及喪失抵押品贖回權為特徵的次級按揭危機。美國樓市過去數月飽受次按危機困擾，並引發環球股市大地震。這是美國政府首次對此做出正式回應。
【大公報訊】綜合通訊社華盛頓三十一日消息：布什在白宮對記者說，次按危機需要一段時間才能結束，不過有關問題只是美國經濟的一小部分，其穩固基礎不會因而受損。他表示有信心美國經濟可以「平安度過任何動盪」。
布什的建議包括以更優惠條款重組借貸，並由聯邦房屋管理局提供貸款保證。另外，布什亦要求國會改革稅務條例協助業主，而財政部、房屋及城市發展部將會聯手，確認未來兩年可能拖欠供款的業主身份。
促國會改革稅務法規
上述措施以無法償還按揭貸款的小業主為對象，讓政府支持的聯邦房屋管理局為拖欠還款九十天或以上的次級按揭貸款人做擔保，協助他們避免喪失抵押品贖回權。布什也希望把容許該機構擔保的貸款限額，由目前的三十六萬二千七百九十美元，調高至四十一萬七千美元。
計劃還包括：
●暫緩執行房主需負擔的即使獲債務寬免但仍要繳稅的相關法律。
●敦促國會通過改革法規，讓聯邦房屋管理局在以次級按揭協助抵押持有人方面，可以更靈活。
●聲言與由民主黨主導的國會合作，改革稅務法規，協助受困擾的借貸人能重整自己的債務。
●呼籲積極執行進取的借貸法例，及強化借貸常規。
布什還強調嚴厲執法和防止不負責任借貸的重要性。
一名政府高級官員三十日說，布什將指示財政部長保爾森和住房及城市發展部長杰克遜，起草一項倡議，協助有困難的抵押借款者，獲得他們所需要的服務和產品，避免他們拖欠貸款。
不過，《華爾街日報》批評說：「政府的方案將令聯邦住房管理局的貸款可以落入信貸紀錄最差的人手裡，以負擔經已增加的風險。」
美國喪失抵押品贖回權和遲緩還款的情況預期仍會繼續惡化。準備在○七及○八年重新設定高利率的可調整利率貸款，將有二百多萬宗。因預付按揭而加諸的嚴厲處罰，將令一些業主更頭痛。
Source: http://www.takungpao.com
【大公報訊】綜合通訊社華盛頓三十一日消息：布什在白宮對記者說，次按危機需要一段時間才能結束，不過有關問題只是美國經濟的一小部分，其穩固基礎不會因而受損。他表示有信心美國經濟可以「平安度過任何動盪」。
布什的建議包括以更優惠條款重組借貸，並由聯邦房屋管理局提供貸款保證。另外，布什亦要求國會改革稅務條例協助業主，而財政部、房屋及城市發展部將會聯手，確認未來兩年可能拖欠供款的業主身份。
促國會改革稅務法規
上述措施以無法償還按揭貸款的小業主為對象，讓政府支持的聯邦房屋管理局為拖欠還款九十天或以上的次級按揭貸款人做擔保，協助他們避免喪失抵押品贖回權。布什也希望把容許該機構擔保的貸款限額，由目前的三十六萬二千七百九十美元，調高至四十一萬七千美元。
計劃還包括：
●暫緩執行房主需負擔的即使獲債務寬免但仍要繳稅的相關法律。
●敦促國會通過改革法規，讓聯邦房屋管理局在以次級按揭協助抵押持有人方面，可以更靈活。
●聲言與由民主黨主導的國會合作，改革稅務法規，協助受困擾的借貸人能重整自己的債務。
●呼籲積極執行進取的借貸法例，及強化借貸常規。
布什還強調嚴厲執法和防止不負責任借貸的重要性。
一名政府高級官員三十日說，布什將指示財政部長保爾森和住房及城市發展部長杰克遜，起草一項倡議，協助有困難的抵押借款者，獲得他們所需要的服務和產品，避免他們拖欠貸款。
不過，《華爾街日報》批評說：「政府的方案將令聯邦住房管理局的貸款可以落入信貸紀錄最差的人手裡，以負擔經已增加的風險。」
美國喪失抵押品贖回權和遲緩還款的情況預期仍會繼續惡化。準備在○七及○八年重新設定高利率的可調整利率貸款，將有二百多萬宗。因預付按揭而加諸的嚴厲處罰，將令一些業主更頭痛。
Source: http://www.takungpao.com
Sunday, August 26, 2007
美國的困局 主宰全球市場
美國的困局 主宰全球市場
- Monday, August 27, 2007
道瓊斯工業指數在7月中旬創下歷史新高14000點后，于月杪挫跌5.6%至13,211點，使全球股市出現持續的賣壓。
雖然目前全球股市的不穩定局面，與今年3月時期股市急降的情形相似，並且都是因為同樣的原因，那就是美國房產泡沫的困擾、次級房貸業者的問題、日圓利差交易的平倉活動等，現在，美國的困擾在于次級房貸的問題正迅速蔓延，並造成投資者調低風險口味(RiskAppetite)，而其中的直接影響就是導致美國大宗的收購計劃面對難以獲得融資的問題（這表示，儘管利率提升，借貸者如私募資本公司，也無法獲得融資進行併購活動）。這帶來信貸危機擴大的憂慮，也讓美國金融市場承受更大的壓力。
我們相信，美國的問題將會造成股市產生更多的波動，全球市場需要一些時間才能夠平復下來。無論如何，我們依然相信，全球投資者對新興市場的興趣，特別是對亞洲股市的興趣，會相對較強，亞洲股市相信將會在塵埃落定之后回升。
全球經濟更強穩
排除美國股市崩盤的可能，我們認為，當地的信貸危機所產生的信貸緊縮影響，只是暫時性和短期性的問題。它應該不會對亞洲股市造成長遠的負面影響。
在這關鍵時刻，我們相信，雖然次級房貸或信貸問題很嚴重，並需要密切關注；但全球經濟的基礎依然強穩。今年，美國的國內生產總值，相信將可繼續取得2%的健康成長（美國商務部在7月27日宣佈，2007年第2季的國內生產總值，取得3.4%的成長）。
鑒于歐洲、日本、中國、印度及亞洲經濟的強勁成長，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在7月25日，提高全球在2007及2008年的經濟成長預測，從4.9%至5.2%。為何亞洲股市會有良好的表現？
亞洲經濟與股市非常強勁，因為：
●亞洲的中央銀行有充足的國際外匯儲備金；亞洲擁有接近2兆5000億美元的國際外匯儲備金，單單是中國就有1兆2020億美元。此外，日本則擁有9000億美元的儲備金。
●在亞洲金融風暴時期的清理后，目前銀行系統的呆賬處于相當低的水平。
●在過去幾年持續的成長與良好的獲利情況下，亞洲公司都有充裕的現金。
●亞洲人民擁有豐富的資金，以及少量的貸款。
利率削減與茁壯成長推高印尼表現
印尼的經濟迅速發展，此外，通貨膨脹率的壓力也在各項的經濟改革措施下減緩；自去年起，印尼中央銀行已經開始有減低利率的空間。連續多次的利率削減行動(從06年的12.5%下跌至現在的8.75%)帶動消費開銷。
因著消費開銷好轉而受惠的商家主要是大財團，包括提供在印尼銷售豐田及本田汽車與電單車的的汽車經銷商Astra International。
其他協助改善印尼經濟表現的因素，包括：
●商品價格居高--棕油、石油、木材、鋁、煤炭等等的出口價格達到歷史新高，為國家帶來豐富財源。
●基礎設施貸款的發放--這是多年來規劃的最后一個階段。當銀行發出基礎設施貸款，銀行領域的貸款將大幅度成長。印尼的貸款年成長接近20%。
銀行領域也從印尼經濟復甦的過程中獲利；獲得良好管理的印尼銀行，如Panin銀行，在07上半年貸款按年成長38%，淨利則提升60%。(Panin銀行的創始人及擁有人是著名的印尼華僑。澳紐銀行在該銀行擁有30%的股權。)
大馬經濟下半年料強勁
雖然一些人認為，大馬經濟並沒有如預期的快速成長，而第九大馬計劃也沒有正式啟動，不過，我們從涉及這些計劃的上市公司所得到的消息是，許多第九大馬計劃下的合約，已經發出並開始施工。我們預測，我國經濟能夠在下半年迅速成長，在未來12至18個月內，這強勁的成長，預料將導致建築材料例如鋼鐵、石灰和建築器材等，面對供
應短缺的問題。
此外，我們相信本地消費開銷也蓄勢待發，因為：
●公務員加薪在今年7月已經生效
●國內生產總值成長率提高(預測今年有6%)
●股市帶來的財富效應
●商品價格創新高，包括原棕油(每公噸2660令吉)及樹膠(每公斤722令吉)帶來的財富效應
大馬經濟成長的一個先兆是，在報章上刊登的廣告數量有增長的跡象；我們察覺到一個很好的例子就是，《星報》報紙的厚度在今年有所增加。
最后，市場預料政府將如往昔般，在9月7日宣讀的年度財政預算案中，繼續為人民帶來好消息。
結論
我們相信美國市場及次級房貸問題值得關注，並需要獲得緊密的觀察。短期內，區域市場將面對美國帶來的不穩定性和下降趨勢。在這個過渡時期，採取謹慎及保守策略是萬全之策。
無論如何，我們也相信亞洲將在中期或長期內，將繼續吸引海外投資基金，因為本區域的經濟茁壯成長，加上亞洲股市的漲勢料能持續。
Source = Oriental Daily Newspaper
- Monday, August 27, 2007
道瓊斯工業指數在7月中旬創下歷史新高14000點后，于月杪挫跌5.6%至13,211點，使全球股市出現持續的賣壓。
雖然目前全球股市的不穩定局面，與今年3月時期股市急降的情形相似，並且都是因為同樣的原因，那就是美國房產泡沫的困擾、次級房貸業者的問題、日圓利差交易的平倉活動等，現在，美國的困擾在于次級房貸的問題正迅速蔓延，並造成投資者調低風險口味(RiskAppetite)，而其中的直接影響就是導致美國大宗的收購計劃面對難以獲得融資的問題（這表示，儘管利率提升，借貸者如私募資本公司，也無法獲得融資進行併購活動）。這帶來信貸危機擴大的憂慮，也讓美國金融市場承受更大的壓力。
我們相信，美國的問題將會造成股市產生更多的波動，全球市場需要一些時間才能夠平復下來。無論如何，我們依然相信，全球投資者對新興市場的興趣，特別是對亞洲股市的興趣，會相對較強，亞洲股市相信將會在塵埃落定之后回升。
全球經濟更強穩
排除美國股市崩盤的可能，我們認為，當地的信貸危機所產生的信貸緊縮影響，只是暫時性和短期性的問題。它應該不會對亞洲股市造成長遠的負面影響。
在這關鍵時刻，我們相信，雖然次級房貸或信貸問題很嚴重，並需要密切關注；但全球經濟的基礎依然強穩。今年，美國的國內生產總值，相信將可繼續取得2%的健康成長（美國商務部在7月27日宣佈，2007年第2季的國內生產總值，取得3.4%的成長）。
鑒于歐洲、日本、中國、印度及亞洲經濟的強勁成長，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在7月25日，提高全球在2007及2008年的經濟成長預測，從4.9%至5.2%。為何亞洲股市會有良好的表現？
亞洲經濟與股市非常強勁，因為：
●亞洲的中央銀行有充足的國際外匯儲備金；亞洲擁有接近2兆5000億美元的國際外匯儲備金，單單是中國就有1兆2020億美元。此外，日本則擁有9000億美元的儲備金。
●在亞洲金融風暴時期的清理后，目前銀行系統的呆賬處于相當低的水平。
●在過去幾年持續的成長與良好的獲利情況下，亞洲公司都有充裕的現金。
●亞洲人民擁有豐富的資金，以及少量的貸款。
利率削減與茁壯成長推高印尼表現
印尼的經濟迅速發展，此外，通貨膨脹率的壓力也在各項的經濟改革措施下減緩；自去年起，印尼中央銀行已經開始有減低利率的空間。連續多次的利率削減行動(從06年的12.5%下跌至現在的8.75%)帶動消費開銷。
因著消費開銷好轉而受惠的商家主要是大財團，包括提供在印尼銷售豐田及本田汽車與電單車的的汽車經銷商Astra International。
其他協助改善印尼經濟表現的因素，包括：
●商品價格居高--棕油、石油、木材、鋁、煤炭等等的出口價格達到歷史新高，為國家帶來豐富財源。
●基礎設施貸款的發放--這是多年來規劃的最后一個階段。當銀行發出基礎設施貸款，銀行領域的貸款將大幅度成長。印尼的貸款年成長接近20%。
銀行領域也從印尼經濟復甦的過程中獲利；獲得良好管理的印尼銀行，如Panin銀行，在07上半年貸款按年成長38%，淨利則提升60%。(Panin銀行的創始人及擁有人是著名的印尼華僑。澳紐銀行在該銀行擁有30%的股權。)
大馬經濟下半年料強勁
雖然一些人認為，大馬經濟並沒有如預期的快速成長，而第九大馬計劃也沒有正式啟動，不過，我們從涉及這些計劃的上市公司所得到的消息是，許多第九大馬計劃下的合約，已經發出並開始施工。我們預測，我國經濟能夠在下半年迅速成長，在未來12至18個月內，這強勁的成長，預料將導致建築材料例如鋼鐵、石灰和建築器材等，面對供
應短缺的問題。
此外，我們相信本地消費開銷也蓄勢待發，因為：
●公務員加薪在今年7月已經生效
●國內生產總值成長率提高(預測今年有6%)
●股市帶來的財富效應
●商品價格創新高，包括原棕油(每公噸2660令吉)及樹膠(每公斤722令吉)帶來的財富效應
大馬經濟成長的一個先兆是，在報章上刊登的廣告數量有增長的跡象；我們察覺到一個很好的例子就是，《星報》報紙的厚度在今年有所增加。
最后，市場預料政府將如往昔般，在9月7日宣讀的年度財政預算案中，繼續為人民帶來好消息。
結論
我們相信美國市場及次級房貸問題值得關注，並需要獲得緊密的觀察。短期內，區域市場將面對美國帶來的不穩定性和下降趨勢。在這個過渡時期，採取謹慎及保守策略是萬全之策。
無論如何，我們也相信亞洲將在中期或長期內，將繼續吸引海外投資基金，因為本區域的經濟茁壯成長，加上亞洲股市的漲勢料能持續。
Source = Oriental Daily Newspaper
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Better investor protection
23-08-2007: Better investor protection
by Surin Murugiah
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com
KUALA LUMPUR: A new law will give the Securities Commission (SC) more clout to take civil action against perpetrators of a wider range of market misconduct when it comes into effect next month.
The Capital Markets and Services Act 2007 (CMSA), which is a consolidation of Part IV of the Securities Commission Act 1993, Securities Industry Act (SIA) 1983 and Futures Industry Act 1993, provides civil remedies for offences in breach of Sections 175, 176, 177, 178, 179 and 181 of the CMSA on top of the prescribed criminal penalties.
The offences are false trading and market-rigging transactions, stock market manipulations, false or misleading statements, fraudulently inducing persons to deal in securities, use of manipulative and deceptive devices, and dissemination of information about illegal transactions.
Previously, the SC could only take civil action against insider trading offences under Section 89E of the SIA 1983.
Under Section 200, paragraphs (1), (2) and (3) of the CMSA, the SC may obtain up to three times compensation of the pecuniary gain made or loss avoided, and claim civil penalty not exceeding RM1 million which will be used to compensate persons who have suffered losses or damages as a result of the contravention.
The SC yesterday at a background briefing on the CMSA told the media that this part of the legislation was an important and positive development as it offered added protection for investors.
Other changes the CMSA will bring include the establishment of a single licence regime that allows for dealing in securities and trading in futures contracts, and a single guideline governing different intermediaries as opposed to seven currently.
The SC said intermediaries would only require one capital markets services licence to carry out one or more regulated activities, which include dealing in securities, trading in futures contracts, fund management, advising corporate finance, investment advice and financial planning.
“There is no need for an existing licence holder under any of the three legislation to apply for a new one as it would be deemed to hold a CMSA licence when the Act comes into force,” said the SC.
Another major change brought about by the CMSA is that financial institutions undertaking capital market activities will now have to comply with specific investor protection provisions from which they were previously exempted.
The investor protection provisions that apply to financial institutions are disclosure of interest in securities, reasonable basis to make recommendations to clients, priority to client’s order and regulation of dealings in securities as principal.
As part of the changes in the law with regards to financial institutions, and to promote Malaysia as a global Islamic financial hub, the CMSA lists clear statutory provisions recognising Islamic products.
“The CMSA provides power to the Minister (of Finance) to prescribe modifications to give full effect to the principles of Syariah in respect of Islamic finance,” said the SC.
The CMSA also accords investors wider access to products, enhances protection for bond investors, promotes greater responsibility among industry players, and requires private placement monies to be ring-fenced via a trust account.
“The requirement for private placement monies to be ring-fenced is for cases where the exercise does not require a prospectus. If these corporate exercises do not proceed, then the monies can be returned to the applicants or placees,” said the SC.
Also, as part of investor protection, the CMSA clarifies that the effective period for an interim stop order is 21 days or the conclusion of a hearing to determine whether a prospectus has contravened any securities laws or contains false or misleading statements, among others.
The law now also covers cases where shares have been issued, and provides that monies be returned to applicants within 14 days of a stop order being made, and for appropriate steps to be taken to effect a share cancellation.
The CMSA creates a new category of markets called the registered electronic facility that caters to products offered electronically, said the SC.
The Act will also provide a framework for the recognition and oversight of self-regulatory organisations (SRO), which lay down the prerequisites for recognition, statutory duties of SRO and withdrawal of such recognition.
To promote investor protection, the CMSA requires approval by the SC for a person to act as a trustee for debenture holders, as the legislation intends to upgrade the role of trustees as “gatekeepers” of bonds, said the SC.
“Past experience shows that the trustees in some cases don’t even know the laws relating to debentures, which leads to bonds that default,” it said.
The CMSA also extends the range of corporate exercises that will not require the SC’s approval in future to facilitate fund raising activities, including issuance of securities by offshore companies exclusively to persons outside Malaysia, share splits or share consolidation, entitlements in respect of warrants, options or rights and issuance of securities of a foreign company to an offshore company.
Source: Osk Wirenews
by Surin Murugiah
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com
KUALA LUMPUR: A new law will give the Securities Commission (SC) more clout to take civil action against perpetrators of a wider range of market misconduct when it comes into effect next month.
The Capital Markets and Services Act 2007 (CMSA), which is a consolidation of Part IV of the Securities Commission Act 1993, Securities Industry Act (SIA) 1983 and Futures Industry Act 1993, provides civil remedies for offences in breach of Sections 175, 176, 177, 178, 179 and 181 of the CMSA on top of the prescribed criminal penalties.
The offences are false trading and market-rigging transactions, stock market manipulations, false or misleading statements, fraudulently inducing persons to deal in securities, use of manipulative and deceptive devices, and dissemination of information about illegal transactions.
Previously, the SC could only take civil action against insider trading offences under Section 89E of the SIA 1983.
Under Section 200, paragraphs (1), (2) and (3) of the CMSA, the SC may obtain up to three times compensation of the pecuniary gain made or loss avoided, and claim civil penalty not exceeding RM1 million which will be used to compensate persons who have suffered losses or damages as a result of the contravention.
The SC yesterday at a background briefing on the CMSA told the media that this part of the legislation was an important and positive development as it offered added protection for investors.
Other changes the CMSA will bring include the establishment of a single licence regime that allows for dealing in securities and trading in futures contracts, and a single guideline governing different intermediaries as opposed to seven currently.
The SC said intermediaries would only require one capital markets services licence to carry out one or more regulated activities, which include dealing in securities, trading in futures contracts, fund management, advising corporate finance, investment advice and financial planning.
“There is no need for an existing licence holder under any of the three legislation to apply for a new one as it would be deemed to hold a CMSA licence when the Act comes into force,” said the SC.
Another major change brought about by the CMSA is that financial institutions undertaking capital market activities will now have to comply with specific investor protection provisions from which they were previously exempted.
The investor protection provisions that apply to financial institutions are disclosure of interest in securities, reasonable basis to make recommendations to clients, priority to client’s order and regulation of dealings in securities as principal.
As part of the changes in the law with regards to financial institutions, and to promote Malaysia as a global Islamic financial hub, the CMSA lists clear statutory provisions recognising Islamic products.
“The CMSA provides power to the Minister (of Finance) to prescribe modifications to give full effect to the principles of Syariah in respect of Islamic finance,” said the SC.
The CMSA also accords investors wider access to products, enhances protection for bond investors, promotes greater responsibility among industry players, and requires private placement monies to be ring-fenced via a trust account.
“The requirement for private placement monies to be ring-fenced is for cases where the exercise does not require a prospectus. If these corporate exercises do not proceed, then the monies can be returned to the applicants or placees,” said the SC.
Also, as part of investor protection, the CMSA clarifies that the effective period for an interim stop order is 21 days or the conclusion of a hearing to determine whether a prospectus has contravened any securities laws or contains false or misleading statements, among others.
The law now also covers cases where shares have been issued, and provides that monies be returned to applicants within 14 days of a stop order being made, and for appropriate steps to be taken to effect a share cancellation.
The CMSA creates a new category of markets called the registered electronic facility that caters to products offered electronically, said the SC.
The Act will also provide a framework for the recognition and oversight of self-regulatory organisations (SRO), which lay down the prerequisites for recognition, statutory duties of SRO and withdrawal of such recognition.
To promote investor protection, the CMSA requires approval by the SC for a person to act as a trustee for debenture holders, as the legislation intends to upgrade the role of trustees as “gatekeepers” of bonds, said the SC.
“Past experience shows that the trustees in some cases don’t even know the laws relating to debentures, which leads to bonds that default,” it said.
The CMSA also extends the range of corporate exercises that will not require the SC’s approval in future to facilitate fund raising activities, including issuance of securities by offshore companies exclusively to persons outside Malaysia, share splits or share consolidation, entitlements in respect of warrants, options or rights and issuance of securities of a foreign company to an offshore company.
Source: Osk Wirenews
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Global credit crunch could slow Malaysia's economic growth this year
Global credit crunch could slow Malaysia's economic growth this year - UPDATE
17/08/2007 18:15:00
KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) - The global credit crunch has the potential
to slow Malaysia's economic growth this year if it spreads to the wider US
economy, slowing it drastically or in the worst case scenario, sending it into a
recession.
The world's largest retailer Wal-Mart has already issued a profit warning for
the year, saying Tuesday that consumer spending has slowed in the US and abroad.
If the US economy slips into a recession, even the Malaysian government's
pump-priming efforts through its Ninth Malaysia Plan, will not help to avert a
sharp slowdown in the domestic economy.
The official forecast for GDP growth this year is six percent.
The economy grew 5.9 percent in 2006.
The US is Malaysia's single largest trading partner, absorbing the bulk of
Malaysian-made electrical and electronics products.
"The US economy has already slowed down sharply and if there is a recession, I
am sure it is going to be bad," said Suhaimi Illias, chief economist at
Aseambankers Research.
The impact of the current slowdown in the US economy has been reflected in the
domestic economy over the past few months, he said
Malaysia's industrial output for June recorded a slower growth of 0.5 percent
from a year earlier after exports fell 0.4 percent during the same month,
according to official data. Exports have slowed since the beginning of the year,
growing a mere 1.1 percent in the first-half from 2006.
"Based on what happened in 2001 when the US economy was in a recession, the
impact on Malaysia was big, as economic growth slowed down significantly to 0.4
percent from 7.5 percent in 2000," Suhaimi said.
Song Seng Wun, economist at CIMB-GK Research in Singapore, said a recession in
the US could lead to a global recession, although he thinks it's premature to
make that assumption now.
"Asian economies are highly dependent on trade, so in the event of a global
recession, we will not be immune," Song said.
"But it is premature now to say there will be a global recession," he said.
"As much as I hate it, things remain uncertain for now. The good news is as
long as the turmoil in the financial markets does not spread to the real economy
then everything will be fine," Song said.
Increased risk of recession in the US
"An imminent slide towards a recession (in the US) is a clearly plausible
scenario now with a looming credit crunch that will choke off credit to all but
the most obviously credit-worthy," MIMB Investment Bank head of research Pong
Teng Siew said.
However, the full impact on the US economy from the current turmoil will only
be seen in three to six months, Pong said.
The risk of a recession in the US has certainly increased now, Aseambankers'
Suhaimi said.
He said the major concern now is if the global credit squeeze will spill over
to the real economy via the financial system.
The credit crunch, which was initially confined to the US, has now been
"globalised" through the financial markets, he said.
The fundamentals of Asian economies, including Malaysia, remain positive for
now, Song of CIMB-GK said.
Asian economies may fare better this time as the region's two growth engines,
namely China and India, are on a much stronger footing now, he said.
Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) executive director Mohamed
Ariff said the global credit crunch could develop into a crisis that is more
painful than the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
He said during that time, regional economies could recover very quickly as
exports were cheap due to the sharp devaluation of regional currencies.
Mohamed Ariff said a drastic slowdown in the US will have a serious impact on
regional economies as it will have a knock-on effect on China and the whole
Asian region.
Regional economies need "budgetary and monetary concerted efforts" to overcome
the current crisis, he said.
Pump-priming may not be sufficient
Locally, many have argued that the Malaysian economy should be able to sail
through the current turmoil shielded by the government's ongoing pump-priming
efforts.
The government plans to spend up to 200 billion ringgit under its five-year
development blueprint, the Ninth Malaysia Plan, which will run to 2010.
Head of economic research at CIMB Investment Bank, Lee Heng Guie is expecting
the government to budget for a higher development spending of 50 billion ringgit
or 7.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2008.
This represents a rise of 12.4 percent over 2007's budgeted expenditure of 44.5
million ringgit or 7.2 percent of GDP, Lee said.
"It is true that rising public spending will help. But the issue is the
government has a limit too as to how much they can pump-prime," said Suhaimi of
Aseambankers.
Malaysia's budget deficit in 2007 is estimated at 3.4 percent of GDP or 21.4
billion ringgit.
(1 US dollar = 3.51 ringgit)
aipeng.soo@thomson.com
Source = Osk Wirenews
17/08/2007 18:15:00
KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) - The global credit crunch has the potential
to slow Malaysia's economic growth this year if it spreads to the wider US
economy, slowing it drastically or in the worst case scenario, sending it into a
recession.
The world's largest retailer Wal-Mart has already issued a profit warning for
the year, saying Tuesday that consumer spending has slowed in the US and abroad.
If the US economy slips into a recession, even the Malaysian government's
pump-priming efforts through its Ninth Malaysia Plan, will not help to avert a
sharp slowdown in the domestic economy.
The official forecast for GDP growth this year is six percent.
The economy grew 5.9 percent in 2006.
The US is Malaysia's single largest trading partner, absorbing the bulk of
Malaysian-made electrical and electronics products.
"The US economy has already slowed down sharply and if there is a recession, I
am sure it is going to be bad," said Suhaimi Illias, chief economist at
Aseambankers Research.
The impact of the current slowdown in the US economy has been reflected in the
domestic economy over the past few months, he said
Malaysia's industrial output for June recorded a slower growth of 0.5 percent
from a year earlier after exports fell 0.4 percent during the same month,
according to official data. Exports have slowed since the beginning of the year,
growing a mere 1.1 percent in the first-half from 2006.
"Based on what happened in 2001 when the US economy was in a recession, the
impact on Malaysia was big, as economic growth slowed down significantly to 0.4
percent from 7.5 percent in 2000," Suhaimi said.
Song Seng Wun, economist at CIMB-GK Research in Singapore, said a recession in
the US could lead to a global recession, although he thinks it's premature to
make that assumption now.
"Asian economies are highly dependent on trade, so in the event of a global
recession, we will not be immune," Song said.
"But it is premature now to say there will be a global recession," he said.
"As much as I hate it, things remain uncertain for now. The good news is as
long as the turmoil in the financial markets does not spread to the real economy
then everything will be fine," Song said.
Increased risk of recession in the US
"An imminent slide towards a recession (in the US) is a clearly plausible
scenario now with a looming credit crunch that will choke off credit to all but
the most obviously credit-worthy," MIMB Investment Bank head of research Pong
Teng Siew said.
However, the full impact on the US economy from the current turmoil will only
be seen in three to six months, Pong said.
The risk of a recession in the US has certainly increased now, Aseambankers'
Suhaimi said.
He said the major concern now is if the global credit squeeze will spill over
to the real economy via the financial system.
The credit crunch, which was initially confined to the US, has now been
"globalised" through the financial markets, he said.
The fundamentals of Asian economies, including Malaysia, remain positive for
now, Song of CIMB-GK said.
Asian economies may fare better this time as the region's two growth engines,
namely China and India, are on a much stronger footing now, he said.
Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) executive director Mohamed
Ariff said the global credit crunch could develop into a crisis that is more
painful than the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
He said during that time, regional economies could recover very quickly as
exports were cheap due to the sharp devaluation of regional currencies.
Mohamed Ariff said a drastic slowdown in the US will have a serious impact on
regional economies as it will have a knock-on effect on China and the whole
Asian region.
Regional economies need "budgetary and monetary concerted efforts" to overcome
the current crisis, he said.
Pump-priming may not be sufficient
Locally, many have argued that the Malaysian economy should be able to sail
through the current turmoil shielded by the government's ongoing pump-priming
efforts.
The government plans to spend up to 200 billion ringgit under its five-year
development blueprint, the Ninth Malaysia Plan, which will run to 2010.
Head of economic research at CIMB Investment Bank, Lee Heng Guie is expecting
the government to budget for a higher development spending of 50 billion ringgit
or 7.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2008.
This represents a rise of 12.4 percent over 2007's budgeted expenditure of 44.5
million ringgit or 7.2 percent of GDP, Lee said.
"It is true that rising public spending will help. But the issue is the
government has a limit too as to how much they can pump-prime," said Suhaimi of
Aseambankers.
Malaysia's budget deficit in 2007 is estimated at 3.4 percent of GDP or 21.4
billion ringgit.
(1 US dollar = 3.51 ringgit)
aipeng.soo@thomson.com
Source = Osk Wirenews
Friday, July 6, 2007
Malaysia's Maybank target raised to 15.40 rgt on construction spending
Malaysia's Maybank target raised to 15.40 rgt on construction spending - CIMB
06/07/2007 15:27:00
KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) - CIMB Research has raised its target price on
Maybank, Malaysia's largest banking group by assets, to 15.40 ringgit from the
previous 15.30, while keeping its "outperform" call on the stock, saying the
bank will be an indirect beneficiary of rising infrastructure spending under the
government's five-year development plan, the Ninth Malaysia Plan.
CIMB banking sector analyst Winson Ng said Maybank will likely see better
prospects for financial year ending June 2008 as the Ninth Malaysia Plan, which
runs through 2010, could lead to higher loan demand.
Although the core financing for projects will be raised from the capital
market, the implementation of these projects will have spillover effects on
smaller players in the construction sector, said Ng.
In addition, the bank's Singapore unit is expected to register double-digit
loan growth in the 2008 fiscal year based on the projected 11 percent growth
rate for Singapore's banking industry.
"Increased business activity to these players will require them to take up
additional financing for capital investment and working capital purposes," he
said.
Maybank has 18.5 percent share of the construction loans market.
Loan growth had been weak for the first nine months to March as Maybank
continued to focus on expanding its non-interest income, said Ng.
Growth momentum is expected to have improved in the fourth quarter to June, but
full-year loan growth will still be sluggish at a projected 3.8 percent for
financial year 2007, he said.
The revised target price has also taken into account higher-than-expected gains
from the bank's disposal of non-performing loans, he said.
Maybank plans to dispose of another two tranches of NPLs worth a total of 3-4
billion ringgit, the analyst said.
At 3.11 pm, Maybank was unchanged at 12.20 ringgit.
Source: Osk Wirenews
06/07/2007 15:27:00
KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) - CIMB Research has raised its target price on
Maybank, Malaysia's largest banking group by assets, to 15.40 ringgit from the
previous 15.30, while keeping its "outperform" call on the stock, saying the
bank will be an indirect beneficiary of rising infrastructure spending under the
government's five-year development plan, the Ninth Malaysia Plan.
CIMB banking sector analyst Winson Ng said Maybank will likely see better
prospects for financial year ending June 2008 as the Ninth Malaysia Plan, which
runs through 2010, could lead to higher loan demand.
Although the core financing for projects will be raised from the capital
market, the implementation of these projects will have spillover effects on
smaller players in the construction sector, said Ng.
In addition, the bank's Singapore unit is expected to register double-digit
loan growth in the 2008 fiscal year based on the projected 11 percent growth
rate for Singapore's banking industry.
"Increased business activity to these players will require them to take up
additional financing for capital investment and working capital purposes," he
said.
Maybank has 18.5 percent share of the construction loans market.
Loan growth had been weak for the first nine months to March as Maybank
continued to focus on expanding its non-interest income, said Ng.
Growth momentum is expected to have improved in the fourth quarter to June, but
full-year loan growth will still be sluggish at a projected 3.8 percent for
financial year 2007, he said.
The revised target price has also taken into account higher-than-expected gains
from the bank's disposal of non-performing loans, he said.
Maybank plans to dispose of another two tranches of NPLs worth a total of 3-4
billion ringgit, the analyst said.
At 3.11 pm, Maybank was unchanged at 12.20 ringgit.
Source: Osk Wirenews
Malaysia's oil/gas sector at 'overweight' on petroleum hub project
Malaysia's oil/gas sector at 'overweight' on petroleum hub project - AmResearch
06/07/2007 15:36:00
KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) - AmResearch has kept its 'overweight' rating
on the oil and gas (O&G) sector after the managers of the 1.4-billion-ringgit
Asia Petroleum Hub (APH) project in Tanjung Bin, Johor, said the hub will be
operational by mid-2009, having secured clients and financing for the massive
project.
"From our understanding, the new facility should address the lack of storage
space in Malaysia as well as lower bunkering cost,'' the research house said in
a note to investors Friday.
It noted that three key contracts have been awarded by the managing contractor
of the hub, ZAQ Construction Sdn Bhd.
The contracts involved procurement, construction and commissioning of the
petroleum hub and bunkering facilities and the recipients included Muhibbah
Engineering, which secured a 450 million ringgit contract, Nam Fatt
Construction, which won a 553 million ringgit contract, and Kencana Petroleum,
which received a 240 million ringgit contract.
"Macro newsflow momentum remains strong and will gain traction further out.
This project may possibly have positive spillover (effect) on KNM Group and
Dialog,'' AmResearch said, adding that it
has "buy'' calls on Coastal Contracts, Ramunia, Wah Seong, Alam Maritim and
Petronas Gas.
Asia Petroleum Hub Sdn Bhd executive chairman Abdul Rashid Mohamad Isa
Al-Qadiry said yesterday at the project's ground-breaking ceremony that APH has
secured three clients and expects to run at full capacity within six months of
starting operations.
It will fund about 1.1 billion ringgit of the 1.4 billion total cost via
project financing obtained from CIMB Bank.
Source: osk wirenews
06/07/2007 15:36:00
KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) - AmResearch has kept its 'overweight' rating
on the oil and gas (O&G) sector after the managers of the 1.4-billion-ringgit
Asia Petroleum Hub (APH) project in Tanjung Bin, Johor, said the hub will be
operational by mid-2009, having secured clients and financing for the massive
project.
"From our understanding, the new facility should address the lack of storage
space in Malaysia as well as lower bunkering cost,'' the research house said in
a note to investors Friday.
It noted that three key contracts have been awarded by the managing contractor
of the hub, ZAQ Construction Sdn Bhd.
The contracts involved procurement, construction and commissioning of the
petroleum hub and bunkering facilities and the recipients included Muhibbah
Engineering, which secured a 450 million ringgit contract, Nam Fatt
Construction, which won a 553 million ringgit contract, and Kencana Petroleum,
which received a 240 million ringgit contract.
"Macro newsflow momentum remains strong and will gain traction further out.
This project may possibly have positive spillover (effect) on KNM Group and
Dialog,'' AmResearch said, adding that it
has "buy'' calls on Coastal Contracts, Ramunia, Wah Seong, Alam Maritim and
Petronas Gas.
Asia Petroleum Hub Sdn Bhd executive chairman Abdul Rashid Mohamad Isa
Al-Qadiry said yesterday at the project's ground-breaking ceremony that APH has
secured three clients and expects to run at full capacity within six months of
starting operations.
It will fund about 1.1 billion ringgit of the 1.4 billion total cost via
project financing obtained from CIMB Bank.
Source: osk wirenews
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Malaysia-Singapore joint IDR committee cannot make policies
Malaysia-Singapore joint IDR committee cannot make policies - Malaysia govt
14/06/2007 10:45:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - The Malaysian cabinet has decided that the
Malaysia-Singapore ministerial level joint committee on the Iskandar Development
Region (IDR) will not be empowered to formulate policies on development in the
area.
The committee will function only as a facilitator for projects between the two
countries, a statement released by the Prime Minister's office said.
The committee will be jointly chaired by Malaysia's Minister in the Prime
Minister's Department Effendi Norwawi and Singapore's National Development
Minister Mah Bow Tan.
Source: Osk Wirenews
14/06/2007 10:45:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - The Malaysian cabinet has decided that the
Malaysia-Singapore ministerial level joint committee on the Iskandar Development
Region (IDR) will not be empowered to formulate policies on development in the
area.
The committee will function only as a facilitator for projects between the two
countries, a statement released by the Prime Minister's office said.
The committee will be jointly chaired by Malaysia's Minister in the Prime
Minister's Department Effendi Norwawi and Singapore's National Development
Minister Mah Bow Tan.
Source: Osk Wirenews
Malaysia's AirAsia aims for first flight to India in 2008
Malaysia's AirAsia aims for first flight to India in 2008 - report
13/06/2007 17:28:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - AirAsia Bhd plans to launch its first flight to India
towards the end of 2008 and its first destination is likely to be Amritsar in
Punjab, the Bernama news agency reported in a despatch from Mumbai, citing
AirAsia chief executive officer Tony Fernandes.
"I am really limited by the planes and the earliest we can look at (it) is the
third quarter of 2008," he said.
The budget carrier is able to fly to India under a bilateral agreement between
India and Malaysia but it will not be able to fly within India unless the Indian
government grants its approval, he said, ruling out alliances with Indian budget
carriers to enter the Indian market.
Source: Osk WIrenews
13/06/2007 17:28:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - AirAsia Bhd plans to launch its first flight to India
towards the end of 2008 and its first destination is likely to be Amritsar in
Punjab, the Bernama news agency reported in a despatch from Mumbai, citing
AirAsia chief executive officer Tony Fernandes.
"I am really limited by the planes and the earliest we can look at (it) is the
third quarter of 2008," he said.
The budget carrier is able to fly to India under a bilateral agreement between
India and Malaysia but it will not be able to fly within India unless the Indian
government grants its approval, he said, ruling out alliances with Indian budget
carriers to enter the Indian market.
Source: Osk WIrenews
Malaysia's AirAsia to fly to China's Shenzhen from July 15
Malaysia's AirAsia to fly to China's Shenzhen from July 15
13/06/2007 15:20:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Budget carrier AirAsia Bhd said it will start flying
to China's Shenzhen from two of its hubs -- Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok -- from
July 15.
"We are very confident that this route will open more opportunities to enhance
both of our hubs with greater international links in the region, especially with
Shenzhen being the gateway to Southern China and Hong Kong," said Kathleen Tan,
executive vice president for commercial at AirAsia.
Currently, the airline is serving seven daily flights to Macau, from Kuala
Lumpur, Kota Kinabalu and from Bangkok.
It also serves one daily flight to Xiamen from Bangkok.
Source: Osk Wirenews
13/06/2007 15:20:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Budget carrier AirAsia Bhd said it will start flying
to China's Shenzhen from two of its hubs -- Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok -- from
July 15.
"We are very confident that this route will open more opportunities to enhance
both of our hubs with greater international links in the region, especially with
Shenzhen being the gateway to Southern China and Hong Kong," said Kathleen Tan,
executive vice president for commercial at AirAsia.
Currently, the airline is serving seven daily flights to Macau, from Kuala
Lumpur, Kota Kinabalu and from Bangkok.
It also serves one daily flight to Xiamen from Bangkok.
Source: Osk Wirenews
Malaysia's Time dotCom, Hutchison Global sign broadband solution deal
Malaysia's Time dotCom, Hutchison Global sign broadband solution deal - report
13/06/2007 16:26:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Time dotCom Bhd has entered into an agreement with
Hong Kong's Hutchison Global Communications Ltd to offer customised broadband
service solutions to corporate customers in Malaysia, the Bernama news agency
reported, citing Time managing director Baharum Salleh.
"Under the agreement, Time dotCom is well-positioned to offer not only Global
IP Virtual Private Network (IP-VPN) services but also International Ethernet
Services to corporate customers in Malaysia," Baharum said.
"Hutchison has a comprehensive international network coverage to support the
Global IP-VPN services between Malaysia and the rest of the world," he said.
"Additionally, the International Ethernet Services that cover six countries
will also be offered via the collaboration," he added.
The agreement between the two companies is for an initial period of 3 years.
Hutchison, a subsidiary of Hutchison Telecommunication International Ltd, owns
the largest fibre-to-the-building telecommunications network in Hong Kong.
Source: Osk Wirenews
13/06/2007 16:26:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Time dotCom Bhd has entered into an agreement with
Hong Kong's Hutchison Global Communications Ltd to offer customised broadband
service solutions to corporate customers in Malaysia, the Bernama news agency
reported, citing Time managing director Baharum Salleh.
"Under the agreement, Time dotCom is well-positioned to offer not only Global
IP Virtual Private Network (IP-VPN) services but also International Ethernet
Services to corporate customers in Malaysia," Baharum said.
"Hutchison has a comprehensive international network coverage to support the
Global IP-VPN services between Malaysia and the rest of the world," he said.
"Additionally, the International Ethernet Services that cover six countries
will also be offered via the collaboration," he added.
The agreement between the two companies is for an initial period of 3 years.
Hutchison, a subsidiary of Hutchison Telecommunication International Ltd, owns
the largest fibre-to-the-building telecommunications network in Hong Kong.
Source: Osk Wirenews
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Understanding ETF
Understanding ETF
Q: What is an exchange-traded fund (ETF)?
An ETF is essentially a unit trust fund, except that it is traded on a stock exchange. It represents a basket of securities and is designed to track the performance of an index. The performance of an ETF usually mirrors that of the index it tracks.
Take the FBM30etf as example. Since it tracks the FBM30, it will buy the index's constituent stocks. The number of shares bought for each stock will be based on its weightage on the index.
Q: What benefits does an ETF bring to investors?
Unlike unit trust funds, investors can buy and sell units of an ETF at anytime during trading hours like trading a stock. An ETF is traded in blocks of 100 units.
Instead of buying shares of each and every stock, ETF allows investors to gain exposure to a basket of securities with just a single purchase of ETF units. ETF offers portfolio diversification like unit trust funds.
ETF incurs low management fee as a result of passive management. Transaction cost is low (0.6% via brokerage) compared with unit trust fund (3% to 5% sales charge).
Q: How do I buy or sell ETF?
Like ordinary stocks, you can buy or sell ETF through your broker.
Q: How is the market price of an ETF determined?
As an ETF is traded like a stock, the price of each unit is determined by the supply and demand of the market, and in general, will be traded closely to the market value of the underlying basket of securities.
Q: How do I value an ETF?
An ETF is valued according to its net asset value (NAV). NAV is the fund's assets minus its liabilities divided by the number of outstanding shares. At the end of each trading day, the NAV will be calculated. The increase in NAV means the increase in the value of one's holdings.
Investors should also look at whether an ETF is traded at a premium or discount to the index it tracks.
Q: Does an ETF pay dividends?
Most ETFs do pay dividends. However, investors should study the prospectus of the particular ETF on its dividend policy.
Source: The Edge
Q: What is an exchange-traded fund (ETF)?
An ETF is essentially a unit trust fund, except that it is traded on a stock exchange. It represents a basket of securities and is designed to track the performance of an index. The performance of an ETF usually mirrors that of the index it tracks.
Take the FBM30etf as example. Since it tracks the FBM30, it will buy the index's constituent stocks. The number of shares bought for each stock will be based on its weightage on the index.
Q: What benefits does an ETF bring to investors?
Unlike unit trust funds, investors can buy and sell units of an ETF at anytime during trading hours like trading a stock. An ETF is traded in blocks of 100 units.
Instead of buying shares of each and every stock, ETF allows investors to gain exposure to a basket of securities with just a single purchase of ETF units. ETF offers portfolio diversification like unit trust funds.
ETF incurs low management fee as a result of passive management. Transaction cost is low (0.6% via brokerage) compared with unit trust fund (3% to 5% sales charge).
Q: How do I buy or sell ETF?
Like ordinary stocks, you can buy or sell ETF through your broker.
Q: How is the market price of an ETF determined?
As an ETF is traded like a stock, the price of each unit is determined by the supply and demand of the market, and in general, will be traded closely to the market value of the underlying basket of securities.
Q: How do I value an ETF?
An ETF is valued according to its net asset value (NAV). NAV is the fund's assets minus its liabilities divided by the number of outstanding shares. At the end of each trading day, the NAV will be calculated. The increase in NAV means the increase in the value of one's holdings.
Investors should also look at whether an ETF is traded at a premium or discount to the index it tracks.
Q: Does an ETF pay dividends?
Most ETFs do pay dividends. However, investors should study the prospectus of the particular ETF on its dividend policy.
Source: The Edge
Tradewinds surges 27% in early trade
13-06-2007: Tradewinds surges 27% in early trade
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com
Tradewinds Corporation Bhd’s share price surged as much as 27% or 41 sen to RM1.89 in very active trade on June 21 after a foreign research house re-rated the counter.
It opened at RM1.51, up three sen. Within the first two hours, there were 38.33 million shares done at prices ranging from RM1.51 to RM1.89.
At 11am, it was trading at RM1.78, up 30 sen.
The company reported net profit of RM7.86 million in the first quarter, compared with a net loss of RM23.61 million a year ago.
Earnings per share was 1.28 sen versus 3.79 sen loss per share. Its net assets per share was RM2.18.
Source : The Edge
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com
Tradewinds Corporation Bhd’s share price surged as much as 27% or 41 sen to RM1.89 in very active trade on June 21 after a foreign research house re-rated the counter.
It opened at RM1.51, up three sen. Within the first two hours, there were 38.33 million shares done at prices ranging from RM1.51 to RM1.89.
At 11am, it was trading at RM1.78, up 30 sen.
The company reported net profit of RM7.86 million in the first quarter, compared with a net loss of RM23.61 million a year ago.
Earnings per share was 1.28 sen versus 3.79 sen loss per share. Its net assets per share was RM2.18.
Source : The Edge
BROKER CALL Malaysia's oil/gas sector 'overweight' on firm demand
BROKER CALL Malaysia's oil/gas sector 'overweight' on firm demand - Aseambankers
13/06/2007 11:39:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Aseambankers Research said it has kept its
''overweight'' rating on the oil and gas sector as it expects global energy
demand to remain robust.
"Global energy demand is expected to remain robust over the next few years,
underpinned by rapid economic growth in Asia (i.e China, India and Middle
East),'' it said in a note to investors, adding that oil consumption is expected
to grow by a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6 pct from 2007-2030.
However, the research house acknowledged that "long term sustainability could
be a key issue due to exhaustion of hydrocarbons."
"Elsewhere, escalating costs and skill shortage will remain an issue to the
sector, at least in the near-to-mid term in the era of high oil prices,'' it
added.
"Nevertheless, we remain overweight on the oil and gas sector, in anticipation
of a greater push for exploration and production activities, leading to greater
demand for supplies and services,'' Aseambankers concluded.
It has maintained its "strong buy" recommendations on Ramunia, with a target
price of 1.80 rgt; and KNM, target price 17.0 rgt; as well as "buy" calls on
Petronas Gas, target price 11.20 rgt; EPIC, target price 2.60 rgt; Dialog,
target price 2.35 rgt; Wah Seong, target price 4.10 rgt; Petra Perdana, target
price 4.10 rgt; and Alam Maritim, target price 4.65 rgt
Source: Osk Wirenews
13/06/2007 11:39:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Aseambankers Research said it has kept its
''overweight'' rating on the oil and gas sector as it expects global energy
demand to remain robust.
"Global energy demand is expected to remain robust over the next few years,
underpinned by rapid economic growth in Asia (i.e China, India and Middle
East),'' it said in a note to investors, adding that oil consumption is expected
to grow by a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6 pct from 2007-2030.
However, the research house acknowledged that "long term sustainability could
be a key issue due to exhaustion of hydrocarbons."
"Elsewhere, escalating costs and skill shortage will remain an issue to the
sector, at least in the near-to-mid term in the era of high oil prices,'' it
added.
"Nevertheless, we remain overweight on the oil and gas sector, in anticipation
of a greater push for exploration and production activities, leading to greater
demand for supplies and services,'' Aseambankers concluded.
It has maintained its "strong buy" recommendations on Ramunia, with a target
price of 1.80 rgt; and KNM, target price 17.0 rgt; as well as "buy" calls on
Petronas Gas, target price 11.20 rgt; EPIC, target price 2.60 rgt; Dialog,
target price 2.35 rgt; Wah Seong, target price 4.10 rgt; Petra Perdana, target
price 4.10 rgt; and Alam Maritim, target price 4.65 rgt
Source: Osk Wirenews
BROKER CALL - Malaysia's water sector 'overweight' on 9MP rollout
BROKER CALL - Malaysia's water sector 'overweight' on 9MP rollout - Aseambankers
13/06/2007 12:28:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Aseambankers Research has kept its ''overweight''
rating on the water sector pending the rollout of projects under the Ninth
Malaysia Plan (9MP).
"We reaffirm our positive outlook for the water sector, especially for the long
term,'' it said, and noted that the government plans to call for an
international tender for the 44.6 kilometre tunnel works for the Pahang-Selangor
water transfer project "within these few months and for construction works to
start in early-2008."
"This would lead to the rollout of the other main packages of the larger
Pahang-Selangor water project, which we estimate would cost at least 9 bln rgt
in total,'' it added.
Potential beneficiaries of the projects are Gamuda, IJM Corp, and UEM Builders
while smaller players like Loh & Loh, Salcon and Taliworks could feature at the
sub-contracting levels, it said.
Aseambankers said national water asset management company PAAB's active
involvement in discussions to take over water-related assets in the two states
of Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, "is also positive development."
"Here, we understand that Ranhill Utilities is vying for a role in the
operation and maintenance of water treatment plants in Melaka,'' it noted.
Source: Osk Wirenews
13/06/2007 12:28:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Aseambankers Research has kept its ''overweight''
rating on the water sector pending the rollout of projects under the Ninth
Malaysia Plan (9MP).
"We reaffirm our positive outlook for the water sector, especially for the long
term,'' it said, and noted that the government plans to call for an
international tender for the 44.6 kilometre tunnel works for the Pahang-Selangor
water transfer project "within these few months and for construction works to
start in early-2008."
"This would lead to the rollout of the other main packages of the larger
Pahang-Selangor water project, which we estimate would cost at least 9 bln rgt
in total,'' it added.
Potential beneficiaries of the projects are Gamuda, IJM Corp, and UEM Builders
while smaller players like Loh & Loh, Salcon and Taliworks could feature at the
sub-contracting levels, it said.
Aseambankers said national water asset management company PAAB's active
involvement in discussions to take over water-related assets in the two states
of Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, "is also positive development."
"Here, we understand that Ranhill Utilities is vying for a role in the
operation and maintenance of water treatment plants in Melaka,'' it noted.
Source: Osk Wirenews
BROKER CALL - Malaysia's MRCB kept 'buy' on huge order book
BROKER CALL - Malaysia's MRCB kept 'buy' on huge order book - CIMB
12/06/2007 10:40:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - CIMB Research has reiterated its "buy" call on
Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB) as the firm could potentially emerge as the
best play for exposure to mega projects planned for Penang, and to overseas
ventures particularly in the Middle East.
Apart from the 1.2 bln rgt Penang Monorail and 1 bln rgt Penang outer ring road
(PORR) projects, MRCB could add another potential mega job -- the 1.2 bln rgt
new Penang international airport -- to bag three mega jobs in one state, CIMB
said.
The Penang monorail, the 9-bln-rgt Bakun power transmission project and more
overseas contracts are expected to drive MRCB's order book which currently
stands at 1.7 bln rgt, it said.
The company is targeting new contracts worth 1.5 bln rgt by the end of the
year.
There is speculation that MRCB will acquire a stake in Equine to participate in
the building of a new airport in Penang.
"We are surprised by this news and would take a slight positive view should it
materialise," the research firm said.
As for Saudi Arabia, MRCB has been working with several parties in the Middle
East on a potential transport hub, which may provide another big boost to
overseas contributions.
MRCB's 33-year toll highway concession for the Eastern Dispersal Link will
feature a new stream of recurring income by 2011, it added.
CIMB is keeping its target price of 3.15 rgt for MRCB.
At 10.36 am, MRCB was down 0.03 rgt or 1.20 pct at 2.46 rgt and Equine Capital
Bhd was off 0.02 rgt or 0.63 pct to 3.18.
(1 usd = 3.47 rgt)
Source: Osk Wirenews
12/06/2007 10:40:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - CIMB Research has reiterated its "buy" call on
Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB) as the firm could potentially emerge as the
best play for exposure to mega projects planned for Penang, and to overseas
ventures particularly in the Middle East.
Apart from the 1.2 bln rgt Penang Monorail and 1 bln rgt Penang outer ring road
(PORR) projects, MRCB could add another potential mega job -- the 1.2 bln rgt
new Penang international airport -- to bag three mega jobs in one state, CIMB
said.
The Penang monorail, the 9-bln-rgt Bakun power transmission project and more
overseas contracts are expected to drive MRCB's order book which currently
stands at 1.7 bln rgt, it said.
The company is targeting new contracts worth 1.5 bln rgt by the end of the
year.
There is speculation that MRCB will acquire a stake in Equine to participate in
the building of a new airport in Penang.
"We are surprised by this news and would take a slight positive view should it
materialise," the research firm said.
As for Saudi Arabia, MRCB has been working with several parties in the Middle
East on a potential transport hub, which may provide another big boost to
overseas contributions.
MRCB's 33-year toll highway concession for the Eastern Dispersal Link will
feature a new stream of recurring income by 2011, it added.
CIMB is keeping its target price of 3.15 rgt for MRCB.
At 10.36 am, MRCB was down 0.03 rgt or 1.20 pct at 2.46 rgt and Equine Capital
Bhd was off 0.02 rgt or 0.63 pct to 3.18.
(1 usd = 3.47 rgt)
Source: Osk Wirenews
Monday, June 11, 2007
Iran to build five new oil refineries across Asia
Iran to build five new oil refineries across Asia - UPDATE
11/06/2007 18:25:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Iran has announced it will help build five new
refineries across Asia including China with a total capacity of 1.1 mln barrels
per day in a bid to bolster ties in the region.
"Iran has finalised feasibility studies for five refining projects in five
Asian countries with a total capacity of 1.1 mln barrels per day," Seyed Kazam
Vaziri Hamaneh, Iran's petroleum minister said.
Seyed Kazam said the projects are part of Iran's attempt to boost cooperation
with Asian countries, adding that his nation will provide the crude oil.
"Those are some of the cooperation opportunities which I hope will be
supported by Asian countries," the minister told some 1,255 delegates at the
two-day Asia Oil and Gas Conference here.
"China and India are expected to be two major potential consumers in the coming
20 years," he said.
He later told reporters that refineries will be built in China, Singapore,
Indonesia, Malaysia and Syria but declined to elaborate on the partnerships or
the cost of the projects.
"We are supposed to be partners in the refineries and also try to provide the
crude oil for those refineries. The aim is to bring Asian countries together and
to provide crude oil for mutual benefit," he said.
The minister also proposed the creation of an Asian energy market comprising
major suppliers and consumers such as Japan, China, India and South Korea.
Seyed Kazam said the proposed grouping of West Asia oil suppliers and Asian
consumers could bring about "mutual benefit" as Asian countries could invest in
upstream and downstream oil and gas projects.
Oil-rich Iran is the second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia in the
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It is also the world's second
largest owner of oil and gas reserves.
He also made a pitch to investors, saying Iran will need 93 bln usd in foreign
investments and more than 43 bln usd in domestic resources by 2014 to boost oil
and gas output.
Iranian oil production is expected to reach 5.3 mln barrels daily by 2014 from
its current level of 4.3 mln barrels per day.
"The country (Iran) cannot meet that level of investment and technology needs
on its on," he said.
Despite United Nations Security Council sanctions on Iran over its refusal to
suspend a uranium enrichment program, Seyed Kazam expressed confidence that Iran
will be able to raise foreign funds.
"No, we are not concerned about the sanctions," he told reporters.
Separately, Iran's state oil company said it will invest in the construction of
an oil refinery in northern Malaysia, part of an ambitious pipeline project to
transport Middle East oil to East Asian countries.
Ghanimi Fard, executive director for international affairs with the National
Iranian Oil Co, said initial discussions are moving smoothly.
"Some works have been done and preliminary discussions have gone very well," he
told reporters at the sidelines of the gathering.
"Crude oil is going to be supplied by the National Iranian Oil Company," said
Fard in the first official confirmation of Iran's participation in the ambitious
project.
Source: Osk Wirenews
11/06/2007 18:25:00
KUALA LUMPUR (XFN-ASIA) - Iran has announced it will help build five new
refineries across Asia including China with a total capacity of 1.1 mln barrels
per day in a bid to bolster ties in the region.
"Iran has finalised feasibility studies for five refining projects in five
Asian countries with a total capacity of 1.1 mln barrels per day," Seyed Kazam
Vaziri Hamaneh, Iran's petroleum minister said.
Seyed Kazam said the projects are part of Iran's attempt to boost cooperation
with Asian countries, adding that his nation will provide the crude oil.
"Those are some of the cooperation opportunities which I hope will be
supported by Asian countries," the minister told some 1,255 delegates at the
two-day Asia Oil and Gas Conference here.
"China and India are expected to be two major potential consumers in the coming
20 years," he said.
He later told reporters that refineries will be built in China, Singapore,
Indonesia, Malaysia and Syria but declined to elaborate on the partnerships or
the cost of the projects.
"We are supposed to be partners in the refineries and also try to provide the
crude oil for those refineries. The aim is to bring Asian countries together and
to provide crude oil for mutual benefit," he said.
The minister also proposed the creation of an Asian energy market comprising
major suppliers and consumers such as Japan, China, India and South Korea.
Seyed Kazam said the proposed grouping of West Asia oil suppliers and Asian
consumers could bring about "mutual benefit" as Asian countries could invest in
upstream and downstream oil and gas projects.
Oil-rich Iran is the second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia in the
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It is also the world's second
largest owner of oil and gas reserves.
He also made a pitch to investors, saying Iran will need 93 bln usd in foreign
investments and more than 43 bln usd in domestic resources by 2014 to boost oil
and gas output.
Iranian oil production is expected to reach 5.3 mln barrels daily by 2014 from
its current level of 4.3 mln barrels per day.
"The country (Iran) cannot meet that level of investment and technology needs
on its on," he said.
Despite United Nations Security Council sanctions on Iran over its refusal to
suspend a uranium enrichment program, Seyed Kazam expressed confidence that Iran
will be able to raise foreign funds.
"No, we are not concerned about the sanctions," he told reporters.
Separately, Iran's state oil company said it will invest in the construction of
an oil refinery in northern Malaysia, part of an ambitious pipeline project to
transport Middle East oil to East Asian countries.
Ghanimi Fard, executive director for international affairs with the National
Iranian Oil Co, said initial discussions are moving smoothly.
"Some works have been done and preliminary discussions have gone very well," he
told reporters at the sidelines of the gathering.
"Crude oil is going to be supplied by the National Iranian Oil Company," said
Fard in the first official confirmation of Iran's participation in the ambitious
project.
Source: Osk Wirenews
中国股市热
中国股市热（二）
【本刊特约吴以伦撰述】经济学泰斗级人物凯恩斯（Keynes，John Maynard，1883-1946）早年从事证券投资时，曾总结了一个“最大笨蛋理论”（Theory of Greater Fool，也称“博傻理论”）。这个理论并不深奥，以艺术品市场为例，人们甚至可以完全不管某件艺术品的真实价值（即使它一文不值），只要预期会有更大的笨蛋会花更高的价格买走，他们就可以高价买下。
在资本市场中也是如此，投机行为的关键在于判断“有没有比自己更大的笨蛋”；只要不是最大的笨蛋，自己就一定是赢家，只是赢多赢少的问题。如果没有一个愿意出更高价格的更大笨蛋来做“下家”，那么自己就成了最大的笨蛋。可以这样说，任何一个投机者信奉的无非是“最大的笨蛋”理论。
中国股市是否已经出现“最大的笨蛋”的问题，许多人都已在关注；用一句大家比较熟悉的话，中国股市是否存在泡沫？
然而，“泡沫”这个概念似乎不见得容易衡量，有一句著名的话：“泡沫”只有等到它破了之后才知道，只有等破了之后才能追认它为“泡沫”。这就好像一个经济再怎么空前发展，也不能称之为“盛世”，因为这个概念不能用在当下，反而只能追认过去某个时段而已。
中国股市曾在上周创下历史新高，但仍没有多少人敢说这就是中国股市的定限，至少负责任的分析师都不会这么说。若说泡沫都能成功预见的话，那泡沫也就不会产生了。
衡量股市泡沫的重要指标
国际上常用来衡量股市泡沫的一个重要指标，就是市盈率（Price Earnings Ratio），它是指公司当时股价与每股盈利的比率。简单的说，就是付出的投资要多少年才能收回，像泰国（平均市盈率）是不到10倍、韩国是11倍、香港不到20倍及马来西亚是18倍。前一阵，许多人认为印度泡沫现象很严重，是亚洲经济当中泡沫最大的，但印度的市盈率其实也就20倍左右。
中国则保持在40至50倍之间，单只个股甚至可以高到一千多倍。如果就简单理解，中国股票的估值已经太贵，甚至是股价太高。股价和盈利相比是太高的情况，如果以市盈率40倍为例，就是说买一只股票需要等待企业分红派息40年，才能把整笔买入股票的钱取回来。
当然，单纯就以市盈率衡量股市的好坏，似乎不见得客观，因为中国似乎有其“独特”的国情存在。从1990年代末开始，中国的企业特别是国有企业，似乎不热衷分红派息。以中国银行为例，虽然其市值占中国股市总市值比例的前列，2006年的全年净利润也超过400亿人民币，但其派息政策是每十股派0.4元，以市价计算大约是0.8%，为银行存款利息的五分之一，如此低的派息造成其市盈率必然会被拉高。
这么低的回报，为什么还有这么多人热衷中国股票？这是因为中国的金融建设还不健全，以寿险为代表的理财产品还不规范，时常产生法律纠纷。在证券市场，基金及债券发展历史尚短，还没有足够的吸引力；银行推出的理财产品也只是在近几年随着境外银行登陆才开始呈现多元化。如果把钱存在银行，除了利息过低之外，还得被扣除利息税。
中国企业这种“高利润低分红”的情况似乎很平常，因为中国经济还在发展，竞争异常激烈，企业希望减少派息甚至不派息让企业持有更多的现金进行市场投资，增加投资新项目，占领市场份额，最终获取更大的利润。这个特点也与“股神”华伦巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的看法“暗合”。
中国低派息政策必将调整
与中国类似的地方还有日本，日本企业的传统就是维持稳定的低派息政策，但随着日本股东要求分享企业财富的呼声大增，越来越多日本企业转向提高派息政策。中国的情况呢？随着对资金流向的多元化、渴望获得股东的认可及同行业的竞争，必然会调整其派息政策。
当下有经济学家拿人类历史上第一起有记载的投机泡沫，17世纪荷兰的“郁金香狂热”来比较，对中国股市可能出现类似局面忧心忡忡。那个时候，有人培育出一种特别的郁金香球茎，其价格也不断上涨，磨房主甚至卖掉了自己的磨房，为的就是一只罕见的郁金香球茎。
从1634年开始，荷兰百业荒废，全国上下都开始为郁金香疯狂。与所有投机泡沫一样，参与的人们最初都实际赚到了钱。由于价钱节节上升，只需低买高卖，买高卖更高；得了甜头后，大家信心大增，倾家荡产地把更多的钱投入郁金香的买卖，希望赚取更多的金钱。
原本旁观的人看到挣钱这么容易，也受不了诱惑，加入到疯狂抢购的队伍中来。与此同时，欧洲各国的投机商也纷纷云集荷兰，参与这一投机狂潮。为了方便郁金香交易，人们干脆在阿姆斯特丹的证券交易所开设固定交易市场；鹿特丹、莱顿等城市随后也开设固定的郁金香交易场所。
在这股狂热到达巅峰时，也就是1636至1637年的那个寒冬，人们不仅买卖已收获的郁金香球茎，还提前买卖1637年将要收获的球茎。球茎的期货市场就这样诞生了。球茎在实际货物交割之前不需实际支付货款，又进一步加剧了郁金香的投机。一直到1637年2月4日，最后一个笨蛋出现，整个因郁金香球茎吹气的泡沫被刺破。
“郁金香狂热”乃历史借鉴
“郁金香狂热”不仅沉重打击了举世闻名的阿姆斯特丹交易所，更使荷兰的经济陷入一片混乱，加速了荷兰由一个强盛的殖民帝国走向衰落的步伐。从17世纪中叶开始，荷兰在欧洲的地位就受到了英国的有力挑战，欧洲繁荣的中心也开始向英吉利海峡彼岸的英国转移。
“郁金香狂热”确实是一个很好的历史借鉴，但“郁金香市场”的交易规模很小，缺少风险抗衡能力，而且其炒作对象与国民经济基本状况毫无关系，品种单一又缺少增长性。股票市场则是与国民经济走势密切相关的市场，上市公司也不像郁金香那样只是一个摆设；只要有足够的规模、有足够多的良好上市公司，只要股民大众对国家政治、经济、社会的发展前景保持足够的信任度，其稳定向上的趋势就不会轻易改变，前一时期的市场正好证明了这个道理。
除了市盈率，还有其他衡量股市是否存在泡沫的方法；比较推崇的是用国家的利率水平和国内生产总值（GDP）增长率作对比。中国2007年第一季度内生产总值增速为11.1%，通货膨胀为3%，两者相加为14%。同期中国利率则明显较低，选取利率中最高的贷款利率也不到7%，与内生产总值增长率相比两者差距近一倍。这不是今年才独有的现象，去年、前年甚至更长的一段时间，中国的情况都是如此。
两者的差距产生了相应的连锁反应，个人或者企业必然会努力寻求借贷融资。由于获取资金的成本不到7%，而可以产生的回报基本可以翻倍，一个理性人必然会选择此方法投资。中国政府也意识到两者之间的差距过大，近几年来一直在缩小两者的差距，控制通货膨胀、抑制经济过热及提高贷款利率，都是常见的政策。
Source: http://www.merdekareview.com/news.php?n=4235
【本刊特约吴以伦撰述】经济学泰斗级人物凯恩斯（Keynes，John Maynard，1883-1946）早年从事证券投资时，曾总结了一个“最大笨蛋理论”（Theory of Greater Fool，也称“博傻理论”）。这个理论并不深奥，以艺术品市场为例，人们甚至可以完全不管某件艺术品的真实价值（即使它一文不值），只要预期会有更大的笨蛋会花更高的价格买走，他们就可以高价买下。
在资本市场中也是如此，投机行为的关键在于判断“有没有比自己更大的笨蛋”；只要不是最大的笨蛋，自己就一定是赢家，只是赢多赢少的问题。如果没有一个愿意出更高价格的更大笨蛋来做“下家”，那么自己就成了最大的笨蛋。可以这样说，任何一个投机者信奉的无非是“最大的笨蛋”理论。
中国股市是否已经出现“最大的笨蛋”的问题，许多人都已在关注；用一句大家比较熟悉的话，中国股市是否存在泡沫？
然而，“泡沫”这个概念似乎不见得容易衡量，有一句著名的话：“泡沫”只有等到它破了之后才知道，只有等破了之后才能追认它为“泡沫”。这就好像一个经济再怎么空前发展，也不能称之为“盛世”，因为这个概念不能用在当下，反而只能追认过去某个时段而已。
中国股市曾在上周创下历史新高，但仍没有多少人敢说这就是中国股市的定限，至少负责任的分析师都不会这么说。若说泡沫都能成功预见的话，那泡沫也就不会产生了。
衡量股市泡沫的重要指标
国际上常用来衡量股市泡沫的一个重要指标，就是市盈率（Price Earnings Ratio），它是指公司当时股价与每股盈利的比率。简单的说，就是付出的投资要多少年才能收回，像泰国（平均市盈率）是不到10倍、韩国是11倍、香港不到20倍及马来西亚是18倍。前一阵，许多人认为印度泡沫现象很严重，是亚洲经济当中泡沫最大的，但印度的市盈率其实也就20倍左右。
中国则保持在40至50倍之间，单只个股甚至可以高到一千多倍。如果就简单理解，中国股票的估值已经太贵，甚至是股价太高。股价和盈利相比是太高的情况，如果以市盈率40倍为例，就是说买一只股票需要等待企业分红派息40年，才能把整笔买入股票的钱取回来。
当然，单纯就以市盈率衡量股市的好坏，似乎不见得客观，因为中国似乎有其“独特”的国情存在。从1990年代末开始，中国的企业特别是国有企业，似乎不热衷分红派息。以中国银行为例，虽然其市值占中国股市总市值比例的前列，2006年的全年净利润也超过400亿人民币，但其派息政策是每十股派0.4元，以市价计算大约是0.8%，为银行存款利息的五分之一，如此低的派息造成其市盈率必然会被拉高。
这么低的回报，为什么还有这么多人热衷中国股票？这是因为中国的金融建设还不健全，以寿险为代表的理财产品还不规范，时常产生法律纠纷。在证券市场，基金及债券发展历史尚短，还没有足够的吸引力；银行推出的理财产品也只是在近几年随着境外银行登陆才开始呈现多元化。如果把钱存在银行，除了利息过低之外，还得被扣除利息税。
中国企业这种“高利润低分红”的情况似乎很平常，因为中国经济还在发展，竞争异常激烈，企业希望减少派息甚至不派息让企业持有更多的现金进行市场投资，增加投资新项目，占领市场份额，最终获取更大的利润。这个特点也与“股神”华伦巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的看法“暗合”。
中国低派息政策必将调整
与中国类似的地方还有日本，日本企业的传统就是维持稳定的低派息政策，但随着日本股东要求分享企业财富的呼声大增，越来越多日本企业转向提高派息政策。中国的情况呢？随着对资金流向的多元化、渴望获得股东的认可及同行业的竞争，必然会调整其派息政策。
当下有经济学家拿人类历史上第一起有记载的投机泡沫，17世纪荷兰的“郁金香狂热”来比较，对中国股市可能出现类似局面忧心忡忡。那个时候，有人培育出一种特别的郁金香球茎，其价格也不断上涨，磨房主甚至卖掉了自己的磨房，为的就是一只罕见的郁金香球茎。
从1634年开始，荷兰百业荒废，全国上下都开始为郁金香疯狂。与所有投机泡沫一样，参与的人们最初都实际赚到了钱。由于价钱节节上升，只需低买高卖，买高卖更高；得了甜头后，大家信心大增，倾家荡产地把更多的钱投入郁金香的买卖，希望赚取更多的金钱。
原本旁观的人看到挣钱这么容易，也受不了诱惑，加入到疯狂抢购的队伍中来。与此同时，欧洲各国的投机商也纷纷云集荷兰，参与这一投机狂潮。为了方便郁金香交易，人们干脆在阿姆斯特丹的证券交易所开设固定交易市场；鹿特丹、莱顿等城市随后也开设固定的郁金香交易场所。
在这股狂热到达巅峰时，也就是1636至1637年的那个寒冬，人们不仅买卖已收获的郁金香球茎，还提前买卖1637年将要收获的球茎。球茎的期货市场就这样诞生了。球茎在实际货物交割之前不需实际支付货款，又进一步加剧了郁金香的投机。一直到1637年2月4日，最后一个笨蛋出现，整个因郁金香球茎吹气的泡沫被刺破。
“郁金香狂热”乃历史借鉴
“郁金香狂热”不仅沉重打击了举世闻名的阿姆斯特丹交易所，更使荷兰的经济陷入一片混乱，加速了荷兰由一个强盛的殖民帝国走向衰落的步伐。从17世纪中叶开始，荷兰在欧洲的地位就受到了英国的有力挑战，欧洲繁荣的中心也开始向英吉利海峡彼岸的英国转移。
“郁金香狂热”确实是一个很好的历史借鉴，但“郁金香市场”的交易规模很小，缺少风险抗衡能力，而且其炒作对象与国民经济基本状况毫无关系，品种单一又缺少增长性。股票市场则是与国民经济走势密切相关的市场，上市公司也不像郁金香那样只是一个摆设；只要有足够的规模、有足够多的良好上市公司，只要股民大众对国家政治、经济、社会的发展前景保持足够的信任度，其稳定向上的趋势就不会轻易改变，前一时期的市场正好证明了这个道理。
除了市盈率，还有其他衡量股市是否存在泡沫的方法；比较推崇的是用国家的利率水平和国内生产总值（GDP）增长率作对比。中国2007年第一季度内生产总值增速为11.1%，通货膨胀为3%，两者相加为14%。同期中国利率则明显较低，选取利率中最高的贷款利率也不到7%，与内生产总值增长率相比两者差距近一倍。这不是今年才独有的现象，去年、前年甚至更长的一段时间，中国的情况都是如此。
两者的差距产生了相应的连锁反应，个人或者企业必然会努力寻求借贷融资。由于获取资金的成本不到7%，而可以产生的回报基本可以翻倍，一个理性人必然会选择此方法投资。中国政府也意识到两者之间的差距过大，近几年来一直在缩小两者的差距，控制通货膨胀、抑制经济过热及提高贷款利率，都是常见的政策。
Source: http://www.merdekareview.com/news.php?n=4235
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